Global Narratives Research Project - Phase 2

After focusing on Western Europe and MENA in Phase 1 (Q1 2017), the Global Narratives Project is moving forward with an expanded roster of analysts and a truly global geographic and thematic scope.  Below is the list of Narratives and Scenarios we are monitoring throughout Q2 2017.

From Q1: Risk of an internal party revolt against French Presidential candidate François Fillon (Les Républicains), before the April 23, 2017 elections. Graphic compares risk through March 12, 2017 to contemporary rates for S&P 500 and Brent Crude.

From Q1: Risk of an internal party revolt against French Presidential candidate François Fillon (Les Républicains), before the April 23, 2017 elections. Graphic compares risk through March 12, 2017 to contemporary rates for S&P 500 and Brent Crude.

Global Narratives Phase 2 Narratives and Scenarios Ledger

  1. (Narrative) Politics of Brazil's Temer Administration
    1. (Scenario) Impeachment of Michel Temer initiatied by June 30, 2017
    2. Brazilian pension reforms bill becomes law before June 30, 2017
    3. Any member of Brazilian cabinet removed by June 30, 2017
  2. Latin American Trade Integration
    1. Mexico signs new corn agreement with Brazil or Argentina before June 30 2017
    2. Mercosur and EU sign free trade agreement before December 31, 2017
    3. Venezuela Expelled from Mercosur by June 30, 2017
  3. OPEC and the Oil Price
    1. Brent above $60 by Aug 1, 2017
    2. OPEC cuts production below 31 mm bbl/d by Jan 1 2018
    3. US Production falls below 8mm bbl/d by Jan 1, 2018
  4. Central Asian Security
    1. At least 10 armed incidents with fatalities within 20 miles of AFG/Cent Asia border by June 30, 2017
    2. > 100 protests over 50 participants in biggest 3 KYG cities by December 31, 2017
    3. > 5 of largest 25 Cent Asia banks receive state or intl backed bailout before December 31, 2017

  5. Italian Politics
    1. Gentiloni government falls by June 30, 2017
    2. Five star movement wins 30% of mayoral elections in regional capitals in June
    3. Articolo 1-Democratic and Progressive Movement and Campo Progressista poll at 10% by June 30
  6. Ukraine, Russia, and the EU
    1. Rada removes PM Volodymyr Groysman through no-confidence vote by December 31, 2017
    2. European non-Crimea-related sanctions on Russia eased by December 31, 2017
    3. Petro Poroshenko holds constitutional referendum on decentralization by December 31, 2017
  7. Trans-Pacific Trade
    1. US passes border adjustment tax by June 30, 2017
    2. US labels China a currency manipulator by June 30, 2017
    3. At least one Western Hemisphere country joins RCEP by June 30, 2017
  8. Putin and the West
    1. Putin announces his 4th candidacy for Russian presidency by June 30, 2017
    2. Russian President or Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly reprimands Assad regime by June 30, 2017
    3. Russia takes no steps toward reducing or limiting its current nuclear arsenal or capabilities by June 30, 2017

Bespoke Monitoring: Interested in having us monitor anything, anywhere in the world, just for you? Good, because so are we! Tell us what you're interested in at info@metsociety.org.